Ready for 2011

[Richard Amiel McGough]

Beware of wheat price and scarcity this year.

The News - Climate-Environment
March 24, 2011

The worst Texas drought in 44 years is damaging the state’s wheat crop and forcing ranchers to reduce cattle herds, as rising demand for U.S. food sends grain and meat prices higher.

Texas, the biggest U.S. cattle producer and second-largest winter-wheat grower, got just 4.7 inches (12 centimeters) of rain on average in the five months through February, the least for the period since 1967, State Climatologist John Nielsen- Gammon said. More than half the wheat fields and pastures were rated in poor or very poor condition on March 20.

Dry conditions extending to Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado may cut crop yields in the U.S. , the world’s largest exporter, as too much moisture threatens fields in North Dakota and in Canada. Wheat futures in Chicago are up 50 percent in the past year, after drought in Russia and floods in Australia hurt output and sent global food prices surging. Wholesale beef reached a record this week, and the U.S. cattle herd in January was the smallest since 1958.

Many Blessings

OK - I'm "bewared." Now what?

[CWH]

OK - I'm "bewared." Now what?

Are you in a helpless state?...Do what is prudent....stretch the dollar!

It's always good to know what is happening in the world or should we buried our heads in the sand so as not to see what is happening or should we stay in our cocoon oblivious to what is happening in this world? or should we end up perplexed and apprehensive of what is happening to the world?:

Luke 21:25 'There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. 26 People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken.

Many Blessings.

[Richard Amiel McGough]

Are you in a helpless state?...Do what is prudent....stretch the dollar!

How will stretching the dollar help if there is no food and there has been a total economic breakdown?

[CWH]

How will stretching the dollar help if there is no food and there has been a total economic breakdown?

You see, currently the issue is not the availability of food and oil but human greed and price speculation. Due to the high price of food and oil, people are speculating and the problem will come when the speculation goes out of hand with hoarding of food and oil, price manipulation thus forcing an artificial inflation. I don't expect a total economic breakdown this year but I do predict a huge inflation that would last at least a year starting this year. So the prudent way is to last till the inflation is over by prudent measures such as stock up on some essential commodities, cut costs, reduce wastage, reduce spending etc.

In period of inflation the usual way is to encourage spending as normal inflation is due to too much money running after too few goods but in the inflation caused by price manipulation and hoarding, the prudent way is to reduce spending so that speculative traders will be forced to reduce their hoardings and price in order to encourage people to buy.

Many Blessings.

[CWH]

You have the making of a great futurist....welcome to futurism!

Is your prediction based on trends that you observed? If not then I won't buy it.

My prediction is based on earthquake and tsunami trends since last year. It started from the Pacific islands, then to New Guinea, then to Chile, then to New Zealand, then to Japan. This means that the Pacific plate is currently very active and thus the next big one will most probably in the Pacific rim.

I also observed another trend which started since last year from the island chain of Sumatra to Bali and currently the area around Yunan of which a devastating quake occurred at about the same time as the Japan quake and tsunami on March 11. I also heard of a big one last night in Myanmar. This shows that the faultline from Yunan to Bali is getting very active and another likely big earthquake is likely to occur along this faultline this year. This co-incites with the volcano explosion in Indonesia around the time of the Japanese quake. So it seems likely that the quake in Yunan and Myanmar and the volcano explosion in Indonesia is related to the giant earthquake in Japan.

I will be very surprised if there is a big earthquake along the Atlantic, Europe or African side this year as it has been quiet since last year.

There were some predictions that the next big earthquake will hit California after Japan this year. This is not from me alone but from experts as well. The earthquake trend in the Pacific Ring seems to be a clockwise direction starting from Chile in Feb 2010 then to New Zealand (Feb 2011) and then to Japan (March 2011) and the next clockwise direction seems to be the West Coast of USA:

Is California next? Experts warn U.S. West Coast could be next victim of devastating earthquake on Pacific's 'Ring of Fire'
By Mark Duell
Last updated at 5:08 PM on 15th March 2011

Comments (38) Add to My Stories
The U.S. West Coast could be the next area shaken by a big earthquake, experts warned today.

The earthquakes last Friday in Japan, last month in New Zealand and last year in Chile all happened along the ‘Ring of Fire’ that encircles much of the Pacific Ocean.
Scientists believe the West Coast could be hit as part of a cluster of earthquakes, with a Pacific Northwest fault having similar characteristics to the one underneath Japan.

Linked: Recent earthquakes in Japan, New Zealand and Chile all happened along the chain of large faults called 'Ring of Fire' that encircles much of the Pacific
Experts can't be certain where or when the next earthquake will be but the West Coast risk has increased because it is in the same volatile geological system.

‘The Pacific Northwest - what we call the Cascadia Subduction Zone - has the same kind of characteristics as the fault beneath Japan,’ seismologist James Gaherty told CBS.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz1HnWKjc34


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQXDt4VdS0E

I do hope the experts and I are wrong but do take note that the last big earthquake in California was in 1906 and it is due if based on a 100 year chance.

Many Blessings.

[CWH]

2011, a year of disasters, the summary so far:

http://www.armageddononline.org/2011...disasters.html

Floods, earthquakes, landslides - 2011 is a year of disasters
The News - Natural Disasters
April 02, 2011

Floods , earthquakes , landslides , tsunamis - 2011 is a year of natural disasters . Bill McKibben asks: are we to blame? Plus, survivors tell their tales.

At least since Noah, and likely long before, we've stared in horror at catastrophe and tried to suss out deeper meaning – it was but weeks ago that the Tokyo governor, Shintaro Ishihara, declared that the earthquake/tsunami/ reactor tripleheader was "divine punishment" for excess consumerism. This line of reasoning usually fails to persuade these days (why are Las Vegas and Dubai unscathed by anything except the housing meltdown?) but it's persistent. We need some explanation for why our stable world is suddenly cracked in half or under water. Still, over time we've become less superstitious, since science can explain these cataclysms. Angry gods or plate tectonics? We're definitely moving towards natural explanation of crises.

Which is odd, because the physical world is moving in the other direction.

Many Blessings

[CWH]

Unprecented number tornadoes in the US at the same time, 45 deaths.....Unprecedented fire in Texas, looks like 2011 is the year of many unprecedented disasters. Seems like every month there is at least one disaster, wonder what's next? :

'Texas is burning from border to border' : wildfires
The News - Climate-Environment
April 20, 2011

Cost of containing fires throughout the state has spiralled to more than $8million
22 separate blazes burning throughout Texas
One fire in Stephen County increased in acreage by nearly 90,000 in just 24 hours

Hundreds have been evacuated and fears grow of flames spreading to big cities
Some fires burning dangerously close to Oklahoma border, where conditions are also ripe for spread
Rain forecast for next few days giving weary firefighters some hope

Wildfires, raging for more than a week in Texas, have so far burned through a million acres of land and racked up more than $8million in containment costs. Firefighters continue to battle some 22 separate blazes throughout the state, with some dangerously close to the Oklahoma border. Homes have been gutted, animals killed and hundreds of residents have been forced to leave their homes because of the advancing flames.

One of the wildfires in PK West, Stephens County, increased in size by a staggering 87,238 acres in just 24 hours - a 144 per cent increase. Even prisons have been emptied in some towns. The drought-stricken state, that experienced its driest March on record, is desperately hoping for the rain that has been forecast in the coming days.



15-state tornado outbreak deadliest since 2008
The News - Natural Disasters
April 18, 2011

The devastation is stunning - homes and lives shattered as the deadliest swarm of twisters in three years battered up to 15 states.
Ultimately, this could turn out to be among the top 10 three-day outbreaks for number of tornadoes, though experts can't be sure until all the reports are sorted, said Greg Carbin of the federal Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

While tornadoes occur regularly, their power always shocks.

This time it was storms battering their way from Oklahoma to North Carolina, claiming at least 44 lives, almost half of those in North Carolina. It was the deadliest since Feb. 5, 2008, when 57 died in the "Super Tuesday" election day tornadoes in the Southeast. And that was the highest tornado death toll since 76 died in 1985.

"A major storm system like this is going to happen every few years, usually in April or May," said Carbin.

While May is the nation's busiest month for twisters, they surge sharply in April, and most early spring tornadoes strike the Southeast and South Central states.

Many Blessings

[CWH]

World food and oil disasters on the way? The 3rd seal of Revelation?

5 When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. 6 Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, [B]“Two pounds[a] of wheat for a day’s wages, and six pounds[c] of barley for a day’s wages,[d] and do not damage the oil and the wine!”

BTW, Oil os also known as the Black Gold. The crisis in the Middle East is causing jitters on the supply of oil with people and nations calling not to damage the oil wells and the oil pipelines or disrupt the supply of oil to them. Such worries together with speculations help to jack up the price of oil. The price of wheat according to the article has jacked up 69% and palm oil 55%, Maize (for biofuel) 74$.

Food prices: World Bank warns millions face poverty

The World Bank's president urges leaders not to ignore food inflationContinue reading the main story
Global Economy
Portugal begins bail-out talks
Q&A: Portugal bail-out
Moody's cuts Irish banks to junk
Irish pass first economic review
The World Bank has warned that rising food prices, driven partly by rising fuel costs, are pushing millions of people into extreme poverty.

World food prices are 36% above levels of a year ago, driven by problems in the Middle East and North Africa, and remain volatile, the bank said.

That has pushed 44 million people into poverty since last June.

A further 10% rise would push 10m more below the extreme poverty line of $1.25 (76p) a day, the bank said.

And it warned that a 30% cost hike in the price of staples could lead to 34 million more poor.

'Protect the poor'
The World Bank estimates there are about 1.2 billion people living on less than $1.25 a day.

"More poor people are suffering and more people could become poor because of high and volatile food prices," said World Bank president Robert Zoellick.

Continue reading the main story
Food price changes Q1 2010 to Q1 2011
SOURCE: WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS GROUP
Maize
74%
Wheat
69%
Palm oil
55%
Soybeans
36%
Beef
30%
Rice
-2%
"We have to put food first and protect the poor and vulnerable, who spend most of their money on food."

Mr Zoellick was speaking before IMF and World Bank spring meetings later this week.

The gatherings will be attended by finance ministers and central bankers including Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, and Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King.

Nutrition
The World Bank says prices of basic commodities remain close to their 2008 peak, with the prices of wheat, maize and soya all rocketing.

The only exception is rice, which has fallen slightly in price in the past year.

The bank suggests a number of measures to help alleviate the impact of high food prices on the poor.

They include encouraging food-producing countries to ease export controls, and to divert production away from biofuels production when food prices exceed certain limits..

Other recommendations include targeting social assistance and nutritional programmes to the poorest, better weather forecasting, more investments in agriculture, the adoption of new technologies - such as rice fortification to make it more nutritious, and efforts to address climate change.

It also said financial measures were needed to prevent poor countries being subject to food price volatility.

Q&A: Why food prices and fuel costs are going up
Continue reading the main story
Related Stories
Inflation - a growing global concern?
Hard times in India as price rises bite
China's herbal medicine plagued by inflation
Food prices around the world have been rising sharply.

And with floods hitting farmland in places such as Australia, which exports its wheat and sugar cane around the world, there are fears that they could continue to rise.

In January, the wholesale cost of food hit its highest monthly figure on record, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Prices were higher than their peak in 2008, when a food crisis prompted riots and demonstrations around the world.

What's more, oil prices are also edging up, reaching their highest level in two years.

Why are food prices rising?


Following the 2008 peaks, good harvests for most basic foods helped prices to fall back.

But in 2010, severe weather in some of the world's biggest food exporting countries damaged supplies.

That has helped to push food prices almost 20% higher than a year earlier, according to the FAO. (The 2010 figure was slightly below the annual measure for 2008 as a whole.)

Flooding hit the planting season in Canada, and destroyed crops of wheat and sugar cane in Australia.

In addition, drought and fires devastated harvests of wheat and other grains in Russia and the surrounding region during the summer, prompting Russia to ban exports.

As a result, wheat production is expected to be lower this year than in the last two years, according to US government estimates.

Wheat Production and Consumption
Year Global Production Global Consumption Stockpiles (end of period)
MILLIONS OF TONNES SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
2006-07
596
616
131
2007-08
611
617
125
2008-09
684
642
167
2009-10
683
652
197
2010-11
646
665
178
It will still be the third largest on record.

But crucially, it is expected lag behind the growing demand for food, which is another key factor pushing up prices.

Have the prices of all foods gone up?

The picture is mixed.

Rice, which is a staple in many Asian countries, hasn't risen by as much as other commodities because a record harvest is expected this year.

In addition, some countries which don't rely on supplies from disaster-hit exporters haven't experienced the same price squeeze.

Prices of maize in East Africa, for example, where it is the most important food crop, have fallen by up to 50% following bumper harvests.


There have also been more localised weather problems. They have received less coverage - but are no less important to farmers and consumers in those areas.

Onion prices have soared in India in the past month, following heavy rains in the west, where much of its supply comes from.

Like many governments around the world, the government has come under severe pressure to act, as onions are such an important part of the Indian diet.

In Central America, lack of rain has damaged bean crops and caused the biggest individual price rises, according to a recent FAO report.

The price of red beans, part of the staple diet in the region, has almost trebled in the past year in El Salvador and Honduras.

What about speculators?

The FAO says speculators who trade commodities on the financial markets are not to blame for the huge rise in prices, but they have made matters worse.

Take sugar for example. Production has failed to keep up with the growing demand coming from developing countries, pushing prices sharply higher.


But the Economist Intelligence Unit also points to the role of speculators, who spotted the situation as an investment opportunity and "helped exaggerate" the price rallies.

The World Development Movement (WDM) is keen to curb this betting on prices.

It wants greater regulation of the buying and selling of futures contracts - which are an agreement to sell a commodity at a certain price at a set time.

These were created to reduce uncertainty as the producer has a guaranteed price and the buyer secures the goods they need. It is effectively a way for both sides to reduce the risk of doing business.

But the WDM and others think that trading these contracts like stocks and shares is pushing food prices even higher to the detriment of the poorest people.

And what's happening to the price of oil?

Continue reading the main story
Brent Crude Oil Spot $/barrel
LAST UPDATED AT 21 APR 2011, 15:20 GMT

price change %
123.27
0.00
0.00
The price of a barrel of oil has topped $125 on the London market, the highest level for almost three years.

There have been sharp rises in recent weeks following political unrest in oil producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

Underlying this uncertainty is the rising demand for oil.

Analysts point in particular to the thirst from China for energy to fuel its factories and power thousands of new cars.

Like food, it is difficult to escape the impact of the rising crude prices.

It not only directly affects the cost of fuel and energy, but also feeds into the prices of other goods by raising the cost of production and transportation.

As many economies around the world struggle to recover from a painful global recession, wages aren't rising to keep pace. So many are really feeling the squeeze.

Many Blessings.

[CWH]

Dangerous Tornado Situation from Texas to Kentucky
The News - Natural Disasters
April 25, 2011

Yet another nasty tornado outbreak is getting under way across the south-central U.S., with tornadoes already sighted in northern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas.

This is a particularly dangerous situation with a risk of large, long-track tornadoes, especially from far northeastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana into Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, southern Illinois and southern Missouri tonight.

Little Rock, Ark., Paducah, Ky., Carbondale, Ill., Cape Girardeau, Mo., Memphis, Tenn., Batesville, Miss., Shreveport, La., and Mt. Pleasant, Texas are included. The thunderstorms will be moving west to east across these areas this evening and overnight. As AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski pointed out, another major tornado outbreak is expected to erupt in many of these same areas late Tuesday into Tuesday night. [ accuweather ]


Texas Inferno - Wildfires, Drought could continue in southern U.S.
The News - Climate-Environment
April 25, 2011

Hot, dry weather returns to Texas this week, whisking away the limited relief scattered thunderstorms brought to firefighters in parts of the Lone Star state over the weekend.
In a trifecta of potentially bad news for fire crews, the Texas Forest Service said a low-pressure system will push temperatures into the 90s, humidity to 10% or less and winds up to 45 mph on Monday and Tuesday. The conditions have prompted the National Weather Service to issue a red flag warning for a large portion of west Texas, urging residents to avoid the use of open flames and to avoid activities that may generate sparks. Because of the hot temperatures, bone-dry conditions and high winds, "accidental ignitions will have the potential to grow quickly into dangerous wind-driven wildfires," the weather service said.

Drought could continue in southern U.S.

The extreme drought that has gripped parts of nine states — most of them in the South — is expected to drag on for several months or intensify, posing a risk for more wildfires, agriculture problems and water restrictions, national weather experts said Monday.

Portions of Texas and a small part of eastern Louisiana are the only parts of the nation that rank in the National Weather Service's worst drought condition category, said Victor Murphy, the climate service program manager for the National Weather Service's southern region, based in Fort Worth. The "exceptional" drought level happens once every 50 to 100 years, he said.

Many Blessings.

[CWH]

2011 - Year of the Tornadoes?....

Record Tornadoes April 2011 - More to Come?
The News - Natural Disasters
April 25, 2011

April 2011 has been a horrific month for severe weather so far with more than 550 reports of tornadoes, at least 39 tornado-related deaths and unimaginable destruction.

As the wild weather pattern continues this week, the month's total number of tornadoes will continue to rise. There is a good chance that April 2011 will end up being the most active April on record for tornadoes.

With May and June typically being the most active months of the year for severe weather, people are wondering if the trend will continue and make 2011 a record-setting year. [ accuweather ]

Many Blessings.